There are certain fundamental contradictions plaguing proposals for Western security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement, or even a cease fire in the absence of a formal agreement (on the model of Korea).
The reality is that Western countries have not been willing to provide troops on the ground (or planes in the air) in defense of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, whether in 2014 or 2022. Part of the reason for this is the fear of direct military confrontation between nuclear-armed states – Russia on the one side and the U.S., Britain, and France on the other.
Moreover, the credibility of any U.S. commitment – even if limited to a promise of air support – is highly doubtful given the inconstancy of Donald Trump and the overall partisan divisions in American politics over U.S. commitments abroad. So even in the case of apparently strong Western guarantees, including Western forces stationed in Ukraine as a trip-wire, it is unclear whether this would serve as an effective deterrent against renewed Russian aggression at some future point. Certainly, Putin has shown a willingness to bet upon a divided West, though with mixed results.
The situation is worse if the West offers only weak and vague guarantees, which would guarantee renewed Russian aggression without certainty of effective support.
If deterrence did fail and Russia again resorted to war, and the West directly engaged with Russian forces, that would not only ensure a highly destructive war that might expand beyond Ukraine’s borders, but would also raise the risk of escalation to nuclear war. On the other hand, if the West failed to honor its commitments, then not only would Ukraine pay a price, but the credibility of the Article 5 commitment of mutual defense among NATO members would fall by the wayside. Unappealing choices indeed.
The reality is that external security guarantees – whether weak or strong – are inadequate given the fickleness of popular and elite support in Western countries for Ukraine combined with the unyielding determination of Vladimir Putin to bring all of Ukraine to heel, at any cost.
As in the past and today, Ukraine must rely upon its own people to secure its future. Rather than depend upon uncertain Western promises of rescue that may fail and would pose tremendous risks even if kept, Ukraine should use whatever reprieve a halt to the current fighting offers to strengthen its military capacity, societal resilience, and political unity. The West should provide the weapons, economic assistance, and intelligence support that will allow Ukraine to defend itself. A Ukraine that is strong enough to defeat any threat is the strongest deterrent against its belligerent neighbor.
The Internationalist 